* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 56 58 63 65 68 71 71 72 76 78 81 83 86 89 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 56 58 63 65 68 71 71 72 76 78 81 83 86 89 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 53 56 60 62 63 64 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 10 6 7 11 8 12 6 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 0 2 7 6 1 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 313 323 317 261 307 272 302 259 271 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 147 145 149 150 154 149 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 149 147 145 149 150 154 149 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 50 51 55 55 60 63 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 26 35 30 25 37 38 43 44 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 0 -8 2 9 39 42 30 40 19 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -4 -5 -11 -1 4 11 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 601 561 527 532 515 326 178 289 318 242 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.5 12.4 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.3 52.5 53.8 55.2 58.1 61.1 64.1 67.2 70.4 73.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 40 40 37 40 52 41 43 72 67 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 15. 18. 21. 21. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.8 50.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.82 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.51 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 18.5% 12.2% 9.0% 6.2% 14.3% 19.6% 25.9% Logistic: 5.3% 29.7% 22.5% 14.3% 10.8% 13.1% 11.3% 19.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% Consensus: 4.0% 17.0% 11.8% 7.8% 5.6% 9.2% 10.4% 15.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 56 58 63 65 68 71 71 72 76 78 81 83 86 89 18HR AGO 50 49 51 54 56 61 63 66 69 69 70 74 76 79 81 84 87 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 51 56 58 61 64 64 65 69 71 74 76 79 82 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 47 49 52 55 55 56 60 62 65 67 70 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT