* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 110 106 103 93 82 74 63 55 52 47 47 45 43 41 40 V (KT) LAND 110 111 110 106 103 93 82 74 63 54 51 46 46 44 42 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 105 98 90 78 70 63 57 51 48 47 46 44 41 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 1 1 3 7 13 18 25 22 23 27 30 27 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 -2 2 4 5 6 11 4 4 SHEAR DIR 303 279 90 14 38 202 252 229 242 246 256 254 242 250 267 271 289 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.4 26.0 26.2 27.0 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.5 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 129 127 123 119 119 125 127 135 141 142 142 146 152 157 153 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 66 63 58 52 47 42 39 38 38 43 45 49 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 22 23 21 19 19 16 14 15 13 13 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 20 14 14 16 16 7 -5 1 1 6 9 -3 -15 -30 -19 -10 -1 200 MB DIV 8 36 47 30 34 29 5 6 8 -14 -12 4 13 14 9 7 8 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 1 1 3 4 3 5 0 4 1 6 -9 -9 -10 -13 LAND (KM) 2048 1863 1678 1497 1317 966 629 314 34 67 114 364 718 1099 1459 1798 2137 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.3 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.5 138.1 139.7 141.3 142.8 145.9 148.9 151.8 154.7 157.5 160.5 163.7 167.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 16 16 15 15 14 13 14 15 16 16 17 15 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 15 16 10 13 28 30 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -16. -25. -33. -40. -44. -48. -50. -50. -50. -51. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -7. -11. -10. -12. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -4. -7. -17. -28. -36. -47. -55. -58. -63. -63. -65. -67. -69. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.8 136.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.96 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 543.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##