* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082020 07/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 37 38 42 43 47 50 54 55 56 55 57 58 61 62 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 37 38 42 43 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 41 44 34 29 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 0 6 10 1 15 6 17 9 25 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -1 3 -3 5 -4 4 -1 4 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 84 257 320 4 32 360 321 12 331 352 335 347 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.1 30.5 30.6 30.2 29.0 28.5 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 157 156 157 161 159 152 170 169 169 149 141 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 136 135 137 139 137 130 152 152 144 125 119 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 8 8 10 9 12 11 15 12 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 62 64 66 63 65 63 65 65 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 8 8 8 6 4 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 30 20 -8 -6 9 9 19 9 21 11 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 30 3 -18 -4 13 -11 27 3 40 20 25 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 -4 -5 -2 -3 -8 2 -4 0 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 334 304 285 277 253 137 32 -74 -173 -266 -357 -454 -551 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.3 91.0 91.7 92.4 93.2 94.7 96.3 97.8 99.0 100.0 101.0 102.0 103.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 26 22 23 32 34 20 33 6 6 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 12. 13. 17. 20. 24. 25. 26. 25. 27. 28. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.1 90.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.84 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.82 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.79 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.7% 11.2% 8.0% 4.7% 9.9% 12.5% 21.0% Logistic: 9.7% 46.7% 35.7% 25.1% 13.9% 40.7% 40.1% 36.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 5.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 4.0% Consensus: 5.7% 23.0% 16.3% 11.1% 6.2% 17.0% 17.6% 20.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 37 38 42 43 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 34 38 39 30 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 33 24 19 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT