* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 63 64 67 71 72 73 77 77 78 80 82 85 89 91 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 63 64 67 71 72 73 77 77 78 80 82 85 89 91 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 66 71 74 74 75 75 73 74 77 79 82 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 1 9 13 8 11 8 15 6 8 8 13 6 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 2 0 0 2 4 7 0 -1 1 0 0 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 28 255 287 313 282 317 269 300 256 280 221 269 207 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.6 29.3 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 148 150 147 149 150 150 150 150 152 147 158 162 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 149 148 150 147 149 150 150 150 150 151 145 156 159 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 54 54 52 54 58 59 63 66 63 61 60 61 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 11 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 28 29 20 25 25 34 35 56 50 67 46 47 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -6 0 2 -2 25 44 40 23 48 29 3 31 0 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -9 11 8 11 11 12 8 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 733 665 605 564 531 485 263 165 267 302 292 263 146 113 338 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.8 11.5 12.2 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.7 48.9 50.1 51.4 52.7 55.6 58.7 61.7 64.7 67.5 70.4 73.2 76.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 15 16 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 34 39 39 40 44 48 38 36 77 65 90 50 75 77 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 19. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 12. 16. 17. 18. 22. 22. 23. 25. 27. 30. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 9.6 47.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.78 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.48 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.65 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 23.6% 14.1% 9.7% 6.4% 19.4% 21.4% 20.4% Logistic: 4.0% 15.4% 12.2% 6.8% 2.6% 8.4% 7.2% 12.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.7% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 2.6% 1.1% Consensus: 4.1% 14.2% 9.7% 5.5% 3.0% 9.5% 10.4% 11.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/23/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 60 63 64 67 71 72 73 77 77 78 80 82 85 89 91 18HR AGO 55 54 56 59 60 63 67 68 69 73 73 74 76 78 81 85 87 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 55 58 62 63 64 68 68 69 71 73 76 80 82 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 49 53 54 55 59 59 60 62 64 67 71 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT