* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072020 07/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 46 52 59 62 68 71 74 76 81 83 87 89 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 46 52 59 62 68 71 74 76 81 83 87 89 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 45 49 54 58 61 63 65 67 72 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 13 11 7 5 9 10 8 11 10 10 12 12 6 2 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 0 3 -1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 8 26 32 349 337 308 332 294 328 326 339 299 338 297 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 140 139 140 147 145 145 153 154 148 150 145 145 148 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 140 139 140 147 145 145 153 154 148 150 145 145 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 10 8 11 9 10 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 51 53 55 55 59 59 62 63 67 67 68 69 74 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 22 24 20 26 27 33 25 28 25 45 47 73 74 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -3 -11 2 8 -12 -4 6 46 38 20 33 38 33 51 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -3 -2 -2 -5 -9 -7 -7 5 13 16 8 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1211 1124 1042 956 882 722 600 578 347 140 243 165 140 279 360 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.9 42.9 44.0 45.2 46.4 48.9 51.7 54.6 57.9 61.5 65.1 68.9 72.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 16 17 18 18 19 18 18 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 28 36 39 37 31 36 33 53 36 28 56 31 31 35 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 35. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 22. 29. 32. 38. 41. 44. 47. 51. 53. 57. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.9 41.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.73 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.80 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 16.5% 11.0% 8.1% 5.0% 9.5% 12.0% 17.7% Logistic: 10.0% 28.5% 26.9% 17.6% 7.3% 18.0% 18.8% 29.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 6.0% 6.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.9% 0.5% 2.5% Consensus: 5.6% 17.0% 14.7% 8.7% 4.1% 9.8% 10.4% 16.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 SEVEN 07/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 39 46 52 59 62 68 71 74 76 81 83 87 89 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 43 49 56 59 65 68 71 73 78 80 84 86 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 44 51 54 60 63 66 68 73 75 79 81 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 36 43 46 52 55 58 60 65 67 71 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT