* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 70 75 77 78 72 65 60 56 53 48 43 39 37 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 70 75 77 78 72 65 60 56 53 48 43 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 66 69 69 68 63 58 53 50 46 41 35 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 8 7 1 3 8 0 1 6 9 13 21 23 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 11 4 357 336 324 312 124 129 174 242 255 244 264 257 259 252 258 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.1 25.4 25.4 25.6 26.0 26.7 27.2 27.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 147 147 141 136 126 119 119 121 126 133 138 143 148 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 72 70 68 65 62 57 52 49 46 41 39 39 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 16 15 16 17 19 17 15 13 13 13 9 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 53 53 52 38 12 11 9 12 4 10 -2 1 -14 -17 -21 200 MB DIV 32 49 38 33 37 58 21 41 -17 -10 -9 -13 -15 -7 -4 0 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 7 7 5 -3 -2 0 3 5 7 5 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1922 2023 2127 2219 2315 2447 2179 1841 1509 1164 839 525 216 67 319 423 723 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.2 13.0 14.1 15.3 16.4 17.3 17.9 18.2 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.8 126.1 127.3 128.6 129.8 132.4 135.1 138.0 140.9 144.0 147.0 150.0 153.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 14 14 16 15 15 14 14 16 16 16 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 11 10 15 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 5 20 31 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 22. 23. 17. 10. 5. 1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.2 124.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.61 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.70 7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 8.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.77 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.0% 51.6% 38.2% 25.9% 16.4% 35.4% 31.6% 12.3% Logistic: 16.7% 34.4% 25.4% 15.7% 9.1% 13.1% 5.4% 3.6% Bayesian: 1.6% 13.4% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 6.4% 1.4% 0.0% Consensus: 13.1% 33.1% 22.2% 14.3% 8.7% 18.3% 12.8% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##