* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082020 07/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 41 44 49 53 55 57 57 57 56 55 52 50 50 50 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 41 44 49 53 55 57 57 57 56 55 52 50 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 45 47 46 43 40 36 33 30 28 25 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 4 5 5 7 5 8 5 5 5 6 11 13 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -1 0 -1 0 1 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 29 53 45 3 339 296 288 217 247 222 238 220 236 245 269 254 266 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.5 26.4 26.2 25.7 25.2 25.8 26.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 150 147 148 150 150 148 143 141 129 128 122 117 124 126 136 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 64 67 68 68 72 72 72 67 65 62 58 51 45 38 36 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 7 6 5 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 15 26 26 35 53 47 30 0 -14 -30 -30 -43 -27 -34 -34 -41 200 MB DIV 69 59 38 29 13 4 -4 0 -14 2 2 -2 -20 -21 -15 -24 -13 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 4 5 6 0 0 2 0 2 2 4 5 7 2 3 LAND (KM) 1470 1569 1660 1766 1874 2089 2303 2480 2234 1915 1587 1247 910 567 258 219 482 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.8 12.3 13.2 14.1 15.0 16.0 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.8 121.7 122.9 124.0 126.6 129.3 132.1 134.9 137.7 140.6 143.6 146.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 35 29 19 11 11 12 12 16 9 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. 25. 22. 20. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 119.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 EIGHT 07/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.86 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.66 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.48 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 22.4% 22.0% 18.0% 0.0% 18.9% 16.3% 20.2% Logistic: 6.0% 19.9% 18.3% 9.0% 5.2% 21.6% 33.3% 48.6% Bayesian: 1.5% 26.7% 7.2% 1.5% 0.5% 2.5% 3.1% 0.1% Consensus: 6.6% 23.0% 15.8% 9.5% 1.9% 14.3% 17.6% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 EIGHT 07/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##