* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 48 45 41 34 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 48 45 41 34 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 48 44 41 34 29 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 5 5 10 11 13 10 11 13 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 37 21 356 347 266 282 264 258 270 280 295 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.6 23.0 23.1 22.9 22.4 22.6 22.3 22.5 23.0 23.1 23.5 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 99 93 94 92 86 89 86 88 93 93 98 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 60 59 53 52 49 47 42 40 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 22 20 19 16 13 12 9 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 43 60 65 57 61 64 50 44 25 19 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 8 4 2 -19 -8 -20 -8 -16 -12 -11 -2 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 7 3 -2 0 13 -2 11 1 6 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 845 942 1017 1085 1162 1327 1532 1730 1868 1911 1668 1455 1242 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.7 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.8 23.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.4 121.6 122.8 124.0 126.3 128.9 131.6 134.3 136.8 139.3 141.5 143.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -20. -23. -26. -30. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -24. -26. -24. -21. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -14. -21. -28. -36. -43. -51. -55. -60. -61. -61. -61. -62. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.5 119.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##