* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 56 52 49 42 36 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 56 52 49 42 36 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 56 52 47 40 34 29 25 21 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 2 3 4 10 9 9 11 12 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 42 27 28 17 231 266 252 259 254 272 288 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.0 23.6 22.9 23.0 22.5 22.4 22.5 22.4 22.4 23.3 23.1 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 104 99 92 93 87 87 88 87 87 96 94 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 68 65 62 56 53 50 48 43 41 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 23 22 22 20 19 15 13 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 41 56 68 67 72 61 48 35 34 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 17 2 5 12 -23 -17 -12 -19 -8 -25 -10 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 1 7 3 -3 9 5 2 11 0 8 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 739 829 932 1005 1077 1247 1439 1643 1775 1925 1805 1562 1331 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.7 23.9 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.6 119.0 120.3 121.6 122.8 125.3 127.7 130.2 132.7 135.3 137.9 140.4 142.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -24. -28. -31. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -16. -21. -22. -25. -24. -21. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -11. -18. -24. -32. -40. -48. -52. -57. -59. -59. -59. -60. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.3 117.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##