* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 60 58 54 48 42 34 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 60 58 54 48 42 34 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 54 49 41 36 30 26 21 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 9 8 10 9 11 11 14 20 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 1 -2 0 -4 -1 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 48 50 41 37 21 350 246 274 251 247 254 270 282 292 274 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 24.5 24.0 23.6 22.9 22.9 22.4 22.7 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 109 104 100 92 92 87 90 85 88 91 95 101 106 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 72 68 66 62 55 53 49 48 44 41 37 35 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 25 24 23 21 20 17 14 12 9 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 37 44 61 71 79 75 57 49 29 18 1 -4 -20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 45 24 0 12 -6 -14 -27 -2 -17 -6 -23 -3 -10 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -7 0 6 2 0 9 -1 12 2 9 3 5 5 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 661 732 820 922 1002 1169 1353 1551 1733 1848 1949 1673 1413 1145 898 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.6 23.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.5 118.8 120.2 121.5 124.1 126.6 129.0 131.5 133.9 136.4 139.2 141.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. -27. -29. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -21. -22. -21. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -18. -26. -35. -42. -49. -52. -55. -57. -58. -60. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.0 116.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##