* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 70 72 69 61 53 43 33 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 70 72 69 61 53 43 33 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 64 63 55 47 40 34 30 25 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 9 9 4 3 5 9 12 14 15 17 24 30 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 -5 -4 -4 0 -2 0 1 3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 50 51 45 37 47 42 320 343 252 271 268 288 293 298 306 294 270 SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.4 25.3 23.7 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.4 22.7 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.8 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 134 129 117 101 93 90 88 87 87 90 100 104 104 112 117 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 74 72 76 75 74 71 66 63 58 54 49 48 43 41 34 32 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 26 26 25 23 21 19 16 14 12 9 8 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 33 41 46 48 51 48 72 59 76 72 64 53 37 42 24 23 19 200 MB DIV 58 62 30 17 26 7 20 -12 -16 -23 -19 -15 -29 -18 -13 -14 -10 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 -6 -6 1 4 -2 7 -1 5 6 4 8 5 3 3 LAND (KM) 553 544 564 629 667 824 1021 1211 1438 1681 1872 2003 1717 1443 1161 874 602 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.5 113.6 114.9 116.2 119.0 121.9 124.7 127.5 130.3 133.0 135.7 138.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -18. -21. -24. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 9. 2. -7. -17. -27. -36. -43. -50. -54. -59. -64. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.1 111.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 31.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 7.3% 2.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 12.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##