* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 61 67 73 76 77 71 66 60 53 45 36 30 24 20 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 61 67 73 76 77 71 66 60 53 45 36 30 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 60 63 68 70 66 58 51 44 38 33 28 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 7 5 8 14 14 12 1 2 1 4 8 11 13 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -5 1 -3 0 -1 -3 2 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 2 355 8 16 57 45 51 50 46 97 215 239 269 286 293 293 279 SST (C) 29.0 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.3 25.4 24.3 23.3 22.7 22.3 22.3 22.2 22.8 23.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 149 146 143 143 138 118 107 97 90 86 86 85 91 99 104 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 79 81 79 80 78 76 71 65 59 57 53 51 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 20 23 24 26 27 25 24 23 21 19 17 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 9 12 24 30 33 47 61 110 112 125 115 115 91 74 75 200 MB DIV 113 123 136 125 89 83 43 53 19 44 13 -14 -11 -7 0 -14 -14 700-850 TADV -7 -2 -2 -4 -5 0 -6 -2 -2 2 0 2 -1 -2 -1 0 6 LAND (KM) 566 569 571 596 636 646 650 728 849 1024 1195 1414 1672 1887 1981 1703 1416 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.4 18.4 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.7 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.5 108.4 109.3 110.2 112.0 114.0 116.3 118.9 121.7 124.5 127.3 130.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 24 14 12 10 7 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. -0. -4. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 8. 8. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 17. 23. 27. 27. 21. 16. 10. 3. -5. -14. -20. -26. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.2 106.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.65 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.84 8.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 6.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.40 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.85 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 42.9% 34.4% 26.4% 0.0% 28.9% 20.1% 11.9% Logistic: 8.0% 37.0% 24.8% 15.5% 5.2% 16.1% 10.6% 2.0% Bayesian: 8.3% 13.7% 13.8% 3.4% 0.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 10.8% 31.2% 24.4% 15.1% 1.9% 15.8% 10.4% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##