* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052020 07/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 50 48 45 40 36 32 27 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 50 48 45 40 36 32 27 23 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 24 29 29 33 36 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 0 1 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 237 247 250 244 240 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.5 25.0 23.9 23.8 22.0 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 106 110 103 102 93 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 97 102 95 94 85 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -55.8 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 60 60 62 62 59 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 14 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 23 20 40 55 80 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 54 28 33 40 58 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 1 11 40 42 18 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1012 982 940 896 800 677 974 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 35.2 36.5 38.0 39.5 42.5 45.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.2 61.8 59.3 56.3 53.4 46.9 40.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 24 26 28 28 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 3. -5. -12. -18. -25. -30. -36. -44. -48. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 20. 18. 15. 10. 6. 2. -3. -7. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.8 64.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052020 FIVE 07/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 50 48 45 40 36 32 27 23 22 22 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 43 47 47 45 42 37 33 29 24 20 19 19 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 42 42 40 37 32 28 24 19 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 33 33 31 28 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT