* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 28 29 42 44 38 45 42 31 29 25 21 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 10 10 8 6 4 24 25 27 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 0 7 8 12 10 6 1 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 197 219 232 216 155 199 165 163 129 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 27.8 28.5 28.5 4.2 6.8 7.1 6.3 4.5 3.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 136 147 147 67 67 64 62 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 119 128 129 N/A 66 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.0 -49.9 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -49.7 -47.4 -46.0 -45.0 -45.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.5 2.6 0.8 3.3 4.5 3.5 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 11 13 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 43 45 42 46 53 58 67 60 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 19 19 26 26 21 28 26 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 13 8 66 122 172 259 262 272 243 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 66 73 51 63 157 97 97 79 25 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -6 25 45 37 67 -12 -54 9 49 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -205 -349 -501 -679 -866 -999 -999 -999 -999 -903 -744 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 33.2 34.6 36.4 38.1 42.5 46.9 50.0 51.2 51.6 51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.6 91.9 92.1 91.8 91.5 89.8 87.5 85.1 82.7 80.3 77.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 18 20 23 21 13 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -24. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -4. 1. -1. -7. 2. -3. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 12. 14. 8. 15. 12. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.8 91.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.78 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.67 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 11.3% 7.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.0% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT