* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 43 47 55 62 65 64 59 55 54 52 53 50 44 V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 30 29 35 43 50 54 53 48 35 29 28 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 35 32 30 29 34 38 41 42 41 40 32 28 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 13 16 15 15 14 12 13 21 17 11 16 23 41 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 2 2 0 5 0 8 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 308 308 308 301 285 275 222 215 182 218 210 253 262 271 216 204 209 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 29.9 28.2 27.5 27.6 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.0 26.8 27.6 25.6 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 168 168 168 166 139 130 131 123 119 119 113 122 133 113 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 152 154 157 158 152 126 117 118 109 104 103 97 103 113 98 80 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -50.7 -51.0 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -51.0 -50.4 -51.0 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 6 5 7 6 8 6 10 4 12 3 7 0 4 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 81 80 77 75 69 63 56 49 48 52 52 51 39 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 16 17 23 26 26 23 19 16 16 14 17 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 95 95 95 105 117 121 112 98 100 99 61 -4 0 56 55 49 77 200 MB DIV 32 50 57 71 79 122 101 100 77 27 20 16 20 25 68 38 72 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 3 4 2 6 5 7 7 4 -4 8 30 12 -28 -28 LAND (KM) -33 -33 -33 -6 -25 24 53 235 448 226 51 -107 -309 -466 -669 -896 -872 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.8 21.3 23.1 25.1 27.1 29.0 30.8 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.8 91.6 91.4 91.2 91.0 90.8 90.7 90.7 90.8 91.0 91.5 92.0 92.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 10 14 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 37 40 35 44 46 40 16 8 19 4 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 4. 8. 8. 3. -2. -7. -8. -11. -8. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 15. 22. 25. 24. 19. 15. 14. 12. 13. 10. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.3 91.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.49 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.88 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.85 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.43 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 17.8% 11.3% 7.9% 5.2% 9.6% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 24.8% 13.6% 6.9% 4.2% 7.5% 6.1% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 3.3% 14.4% 8.3% 5.0% 3.2% 5.7% 5.6% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 32 30 29 35 43 50 54 53 48 35 29 28 27 28 29 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 33 39 47 54 58 57 52 39 33 32 31 32 33 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 39 47 54 58 57 52 39 33 32 31 32 33 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 35 43 50 54 53 48 35 29 28 27 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT