* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/03/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 57 58 58 61 64 71 73 73 67 62 58 55 56 52 V (KT) LAND 50 53 45 40 36 38 40 44 51 53 52 47 34 29 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 46 40 36 39 45 51 55 57 54 52 38 30 28 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 12 10 10 18 18 15 18 8 18 16 15 17 23 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 0 1 4 1 5 0 2 -3 -1 0 -1 1 11 3 SHEAR DIR 303 300 305 304 318 279 264 240 237 203 195 206 241 254 267 220 207 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.5 28.0 27.5 27.6 26.9 26.6 26.8 26.2 26.0 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 164 167 167 168 159 136 130 131 123 119 122 116 114 132 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 146 148 152 152 144 124 117 117 108 104 105 99 97 110 108 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.1 -51.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.0 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -50.0 -50.6 -50.1 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 6 7 5 7 6 8 6 10 6 14 6 7 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 82 81 80 76 74 67 62 55 48 49 49 49 55 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 14 14 14 16 19 24 26 25 22 19 17 15 17 21 850 MB ENV VOR 82 90 93 90 93 125 126 125 107 112 102 80 2 -8 54 54 65 200 MB DIV 55 55 39 31 51 58 94 85 80 77 49 45 8 3 19 102 35 700-850 TADV -3 2 -2 -2 0 2 -3 4 5 2 6 3 -6 8 9 57 -38 LAND (KM) 22 6 -11 -11 -11 5 59 85 262 426 216 51 -108 -326 -546 -772 -991 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.7 18.5 18.5 18.5 19.0 20.0 21.4 23.3 25.3 27.2 29.0 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.1 92.0 91.8 91.6 91.5 91.2 91.1 91.0 90.9 90.8 91.0 91.5 92.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 2 4 6 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 37 41 40 46 34 12 9 19 4 1 1 0 0 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -0. 6. 7. 5. 0. -5. -7. -10. -8. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 11. 14. 21. 23. 23. 17. 12. 8. 5. 6. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.8 92.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.59 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.24 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.80 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.66 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.88 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.67 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.37 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 43.8% 29.6% 20.5% 7.3% 24.0% 24.1% 16.1% Logistic: 17.9% 58.6% 43.0% 24.0% 17.2% 26.5% 22.2% 17.9% Bayesian: 3.6% 14.9% 4.1% 4.2% 0.6% 2.5% 1.0% 9.5% Consensus: 12.1% 39.1% 25.6% 16.2% 8.4% 17.6% 15.8% 14.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 45 40 36 38 40 44 51 53 52 47 34 29 27 27 28 18HR AGO 50 49 41 36 32 34 36 40 47 49 48 43 30 25 23 23 24 12HR AGO 50 47 46 41 37 39 41 45 52 54 53 48 35 30 28 28 29 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 36 38 40 44 51 53 52 47 34 29 27 27 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT