* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP022020 05/31/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 31 35 40 43 43 43 45 48 51 53 55 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 33 36 41 44 45 44 47 49 53 55 56 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 28 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 20 17 15 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 246 241 247 242 242 248 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.9 31.1 30.8 30.2 30.2 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 170 170 170 164 164 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 86 87 86 84 83 85 81 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 66 65 72 79 82 104 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 140 161 120 107 97 113 96 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 12 10 1 0 -4 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -135 -139 -167 -91 -22 22 23 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.4 17.3 17.9 18.4 18.8 18.7 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.3 90.4 90.8 91.3 92.3 93.0 93.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 6 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 37 6 6 42 30 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 20. 27. 32. 35. 39. 43. 47. 50. 53. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 10. 15. 18. 18. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 90.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022020 AMANDA 05/31/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.7 30.0 to 135.0 1.00 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.10 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.89 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.90 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.22 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 7.8% 2.4% 1.4% 0.6% 12.7% 62.4% 16.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Consensus: 0.2% 9.8% 6.8% 0.5% 0.2% 9.5% 26.1% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022020 AMANDA 05/31/20 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING