* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP022020 05/31/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 48 54 55 54 57 55 54 55 56 58 59 60 63 V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 28 28 31 32 31 34 32 31 32 33 35 36 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 28 27 30 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 9 13 18 20 21 15 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 128 239 238 228 243 235 239 242 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.8 30.2 30.8 31.1 30.4 30.2 30.1 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 167 171 170 167 164 163 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 6 4 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 87 86 87 86 84 83 83 84 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 51 57 62 75 80 93 111 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 141 145 155 124 114 101 108 86 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 9 9 7 3 1 -6 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -31 -136 -130 -186 -84 11 32 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 15.2 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.7 18.8 18.5 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.3 90.2 90.2 90.5 90.9 92.0 92.9 93.4 94.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 15 39 7 7 35 27 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 32. 35. 39. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 20. 19. 22. 20. 19. 20. 21. 23. 24. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.2 90.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022020 AMANDA 05/31/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.96 11.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.32 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.95 9.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.89 -7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 60% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 54.9% 33.2% 23.4% 15.2% 31.3% 40.2% 60.5% Logistic: 31.0% 63.5% 42.7% 36.2% 15.1% 62.9% 74.2% 26.7% Bayesian: 8.4% 18.9% 14.4% 4.8% 1.1% 4.3% 2.5% 16.3% Consensus: 18.8% 45.8% 30.1% 21.5% 10.5% 32.8% 39.0% 34.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022020 AMANDA 05/31/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##