* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP202019 11/16/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 36 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 36 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 36 29 21 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 21 27 34 39 51 60 60 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 4 4 2 0 0 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 232 226 228 227 226 231 224 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.3 26.2 23.8 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 141 138 138 127 126 101 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 58 58 60 58 52 44 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 13 11 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 21 26 31 37 32 37 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 62 71 61 50 38 12 24 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 11 15 21 24 29 16 17 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 772 681 591 477 363 129 25 15 -79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 17.0 17.8 18.8 19.8 22.0 24.0 25.8 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.5 111.6 111.6 111.3 111.1 110.8 111.3 112.3 113.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 9 7 5 6 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 841 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -23. -35. -46. -54. -58. -61. -63. -66. -73. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -26. -37. -49. -58. -64. -68. -72. -77. -82. -90. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.1 111.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202019 RAYMOND 11/16/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 RAYMOND 11/16/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##