* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP202019 11/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 36 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 36 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 37 29 21 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 20 25 30 47 56 55 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 6 2 5 5 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 240 236 228 223 226 231 230 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.8 27.1 26.2 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 144 142 139 132 135 125 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 59 58 58 54 46 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 16 16 12 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 11 8 10 22 19 14 13 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 66 62 69 59 49 15 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 10 13 19 32 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 728 696 633 533 433 204 23 -8 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.1 21.1 23.1 24.9 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 110.9 111.1 111.0 110.9 110.4 110.4 110.9 111.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 9 7 6 2 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -19. -32. -41. -49. -53. -55. -57. -60. -66. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -10. -18. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -16. -26. -39. -51. -59. -64. -66. -69. -71. -74. -80. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.6 110.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202019 RAYMOND 11/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 RAYMOND 11/16/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##