* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP202019 11/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 42 40 36 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 42 40 36 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 43 41 34 25 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 17 20 23 26 36 52 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 6 1 7 3 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 251 253 244 230 225 225 237 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.6 26.7 27.0 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 146 143 140 131 134 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 58 59 62 57 50 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 14 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 12 0 9 17 21 9 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 72 77 76 58 45 41 0 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 11 14 23 18 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 691 665 645 599 525 312 89 -11 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.2 20.1 22.1 24.1 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.0 110.3 110.4 110.5 110.2 110.0 110.3 110.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 10 9 8 2 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -28. -35. -42. -45. -47. -48. -51. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -8. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -19. -32. -41. -47. -51. -52. -53. -55. -57. -62. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 109.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202019 RAYMOND 11/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 6.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 RAYMOND 11/16/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##