* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP202019 11/15/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 41 40 35 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 41 40 35 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 45 43 37 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 14 16 20 30 43 53 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 4 6 5 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 258 262 247 247 229 225 220 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.0 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 147 144 142 134 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 59 59 60 59 57 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 16 17 15 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 30 35 14 10 7 22 45 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 27 60 64 44 43 29 54 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 3 13 21 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 727 694 668 651 640 556 334 112 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.9 19.9 22.0 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.0 109.3 109.7 110.1 110.3 109.8 109.5 109.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 9 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 14 13 11 9 10 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -12. -23. -29. -34. -37. -38. -39. -41. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. 0. -5. -10. -19. -33. -37. -40. -40. -40. -40. -40. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.8 108.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202019 RAYMOND 11/15/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 5.8% 3.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 RAYMOND 11/15/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##