* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202019 11/15/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 12 14 23 32 43 50 51 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 5 6 5 4 4 5 4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 239 254 248 250 236 225 224 224 233 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.0 27.3 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 150 149 146 143 140 132 135 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 61 61 61 62 60 58 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 16 14 13 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 29 33 14 -8 10 26 39 33 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 23 32 69 68 43 46 78 55 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 4 17 23 11 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 779 748 722 696 677 632 501 314 157 42 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.7 18.4 20.1 21.6 22.7 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.8 109.1 109.5 109.8 110.3 110.2 109.6 109.4 109.6 109.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 16 14 13 10 9 10 3 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -14. -24. -36. -38. -39. -40. -41. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -0. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -15. -22. -29. -30. -30. -30. -30. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 108.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202019 TWENTY 11/15/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 6.9% 3.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 TWENTY 11/15/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##