* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 67 67 65 59 57 57 54 51 47 45 42 40 36 34 V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 67 67 65 59 57 57 54 51 47 45 42 40 36 34 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 63 61 58 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 25 18 26 24 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 5 -2 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 229 246 266 271 268 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.1 19.2 18.3 17.2 16.4 15.5 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 80 76 73 70 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 73 70 68 66 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -58.1 -59.4 -60.4 -60.5 -61.0 -60.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.8 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 52 51 50 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 21 21 19 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 151 140 119 108 78 79 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 50 40 32 4 -3 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 32 56 59 35 34 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1001 893 772 769 791 864 821 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.6 41.3 43.0 44.3 45.5 47.0 48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 20.8 19.7 18.6 18.5 18.4 19.4 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 19 16 13 10 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 35 CX,CY: 27/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. -37. -40. -43. -45. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -20. -24. -28. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 20. 25. 30. 35. 38. 40. 43. 44. 43. 39. 36. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 7. 5. -1. -3. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. -24. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 39.6 20.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/27/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 2( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 64 67 67 65 59 57 57 54 51 47 45 42 40 36 34 18HR AGO 60 59 60 63 63 61 55 53 53 50 47 43 41 38 36 32 30 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 59 57 51 49 49 46 43 39 37 34 32 28 26 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 48 42 40 40 37 34 30 28 25 23 19 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT