* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NESTOR AL162019 10/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 33 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 34 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 35 32 30 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 39 43 45 45 51 59 67 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 4 5 6 -3 -17 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 296 300 304 305 295 301 321 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.9 25.4 24.6 24.4 26.6 24.9 25.9 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 112 106 104 122 105 113 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 115 102 97 93 106 91 95 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 57 53 42 34 32 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 14 14 12 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -24 -36 -26 -28 -62 -57 -69 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 46 23 -5 8 -33 -43 -68 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 33 47 44 27 51 26 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -8 -121 -22 6 23 219 519 659 769 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.9 32.0 33.2 34.4 35.7 36.2 36.1 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.0 83.1 81.3 79.2 77.2 73.3 69.9 67.4 64.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 20 21 19 15 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 20 CX,CY: 18/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -10. -23. -33. -42. -51. -57. -63. -72. -78. -82. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -9. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -11. -16. -25. -37. -49. -58. -66. -71. -77. -83. -86. -88. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 29.8 85.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 NESTOR 10/19/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 32 34 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 38 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT