* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP182019 10/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 23 22 20 18 18 19 21 22 25 26 28 29 28 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 23 22 20 18 18 19 21 22 25 26 28 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 20 19 18 17 17 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 22 24 25 24 21 21 17 15 13 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -8 -10 -7 -2 3 2 0 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 133 139 141 136 111 102 97 99 109 109 97 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 135 135 135 134 133 135 136 137 138 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 37 35 33 31 35 37 40 41 40 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 6 -3 -14 -7 1 12 8 -3 -20 -18 -24 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -17 -22 -6 -14 -53 -61 -49 -32 -21 -12 -29 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2113 2090 2067 2059 2052 2071 2095 2094 2068 2027 1988 1948 1902 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.2 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.5 126.4 126.2 126.1 125.9 125.7 125.8 125.9 126.0 126.0 125.9 125.7 125.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 126.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182019 OCTAVE 10/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182019 OCTAVE 10/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##