* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152019 10/15/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 33 33 27 24 20 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 33 33 27 24 20 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 17 22 29 43 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 1 3 0 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 227 212 214 223 217 224 231 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.8 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 132 125 119 117 113 110 111 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 125 117 111 108 103 100 101 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 52 53 48 42 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 12 11 9 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 38 32 18 22 15 7 1 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 31 33 49 55 40 27 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 6 8 11 13 14 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 356 431 513 595 679 777 838 975 1110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.9 20.1 21.3 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.1 24.1 25.0 26.4 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -7. -15. -20. -25. -27. -29. -32. -33. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -17. -17. -16. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 20.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/15/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 11.1% 7.8% 5.6% 2.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.3% 2.9% 1.9% 0.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/15/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 33 33 27 24 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 31 31 25 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 26 26 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT