* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 09/30/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 28 26 26 29 33 33 30 29 31 33 36 36 33 32 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 28 26 26 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 17 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 11 10 11 16 13 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 3 2 1 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 111 111 105 111 154 187 216 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.2 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 160 162 163 163 162 155 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 67 59 56 52 43 40 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 5 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 119 102 76 69 66 34 42 15 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 80 58 49 28 21 24 15 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 0 0 1 -3 3 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 43 114 105 97 96 83 49 -7 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 22.0 23.0 23.9 24.7 26.1 27.4 28.7 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.7 107.6 108.3 109.1 110.3 111.1 111.7 112.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 22 19 24 27 31 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 17 CX,CY: -12/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 245 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -4. -8. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. -5. -4. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -2. -4. -4. -1. 3. 3. 0. -1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.0 105.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 09/30/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.98 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.24 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.53 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.39 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.90 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 20.3% 19.5% 15.6% 0.0% 16.6% 15.7% 26.7% Logistic: 1.3% 3.8% 3.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.5% 8.1% 7.5% 5.5% 0.1% 5.5% 5.2% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 09/30/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##