* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 86 86 88 89 83 73 63 51 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 88 86 86 88 89 83 73 63 51 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 86 83 82 82 83 79 71 58 42 29 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 13 14 16 13 11 24 50 76 43 49 29 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 1 4 2 4 14 -2 13 8 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 246 227 227 232 219 198 194 207 233 292 244 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 26.5 24.4 20.7 17.5 15.0 14.7 14.1 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 135 132 123 106 87 78 72 69 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 120 118 118 112 98 81 73 68 65 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -50.9 -50.3 -52.2 -57.2 -56.2 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.1 2.3 2.3 0.5 1.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 63 62 55 40 33 29 38 59 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 43 45 45 47 48 50 48 49 53 50 35 27 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 18 39 41 47 96 116 143 171 16 -63 70 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 34 43 113 106 149 144 43 2 4 30 60 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 18 17 23 33 25 5 -2 -9 14 82 12 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2329 2246 2165 2086 2011 1891 1864 1626 1186 684 451 393 383 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.1 29.0 30.1 31.1 33.9 37.6 42.0 46.2 50.0 52.6 54.1 55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.8 43.3 42.8 42.0 41.3 38.4 34.1 28.9 23.9 19.5 16.9 16.0 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 15 22 28 29 26 20 12 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 10 9 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -13. -23. -33. -43. -51. -58. -64. -68. -70. -71. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -9. -18. -20. -20. -21. -23. -24. -25. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 9. 4. -17. -29. -29. -28. -27. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -9. -9. -7. -6. -12. -22. -32. -44. -70. -85. -92. -95.-100.-103.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 27.1 43.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.20 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 407.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 10( 25) 11( 34) 11( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 88 86 86 88 89 83 73 63 51 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 92 92 94 95 89 79 69 57 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 91 93 94 88 78 68 56 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 87 88 82 72 62 50 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 77 71 61 51 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 88 79 73 70 70 64 54 44 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 88 86 77 71 67 61 51 41 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS