* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 117 111 106 102 99 93 84 69 56 46 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 117 111 106 102 99 93 84 69 56 46 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 116 109 103 100 96 91 84 73 58 42 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 22 16 16 10 16 26 56 80 61 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 3 4 3 4 1 12 12 -6 1 13 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 261 265 255 236 241 219 195 194 207 229 282 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.5 24.5 21.3 17.4 15.8 14.8 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 135 134 131 123 107 90 78 74 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 118 118 118 117 112 98 84 74 70 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -51.6 -51.5 -53.4 -57.5 -57.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.9 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 63 63 61 56 41 31 27 38 52 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 43 45 46 47 48 48 49 49 52 51 37 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 38 26 44 60 90 131 149 115 -101 -83 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 91 45 55 71 104 135 135 48 7 31 49 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 27 24 18 19 35 17 45 -24 0 -44 100 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2328 2384 2316 2241 2168 2007 1880 1850 1653 1150 613 158 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.4 27.2 28.1 28.9 31.1 33.9 37.5 41.5 45.6 49.1 52.0 55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.5 44.2 43.9 43.4 43.0 41.4 38.6 34.4 29.1 23.1 17.6 12.6 7.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 16 22 27 30 28 24 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 9 9 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -10. -17. -27. -42. -57. -72. -84. -92. -99.-103.-105.-105.-104. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -12. -10. -13. -18. -18. -19. -18. -15. -14. -15. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 6. 4. -16. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -19. -23. -26. -32. -41. -56. -69. -79.-106.-117.-116.-118.-120.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 25.5 44.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 525.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 29( 56) 24( 67) 21( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 117 111 106 102 99 93 84 69 56 46 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 118 113 109 106 100 91 76 63 53 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 116 112 109 103 94 79 66 56 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 111 108 102 93 78 65 55 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 103 97 88 73 60 50 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 125 117 108 102 99 97 91 82 67 54 44 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 125 117 111 102 96 92 86 77 62 49 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS