* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 09/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 42 43 44 44 45 45 45 48 52 53 55 54 55 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 37 38 39 39 40 40 40 43 47 49 50 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 42 37 36 33 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 16 17 16 18 13 12 9 5 3 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 5 7 1 0 0 3 0 2 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 68 78 78 77 72 83 103 105 109 85 356 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 159 161 163 160 161 161 160 161 160 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 82 81 81 79 73 59 51 51 51 52 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 66 75 104 116 78 67 34 37 16 31 0 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 114 144 148 96 30 23 22 31 26 28 0 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -17 -17 -18 -9 -3 0 -2 0 0 4 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 149 106 78 14 -5 74 135 104 90 60 30 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.1 21.0 22.7 24.0 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.6 102.4 103.4 104.4 106.2 107.7 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.6 109.7 109.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 12 9 6 3 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 22 21 20 24 26 19 24 26 29 31 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 35. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.7 100.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.2% Logistic: 1.1% 7.8% 2.4% 1.3% 0.1% 2.3% 2.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.5% 10.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 10.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##