* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/26/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 114 113 109 99 88 78 71 70 73 71 77 74 70 64 49 V (KT) LAND 110 114 114 113 109 99 88 78 71 70 73 71 77 74 70 64 49 V (KT) LGEM 110 114 112 107 102 91 83 79 75 75 80 84 83 75 65 54 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 9 8 13 26 25 13 13 9 16 12 25 56 46 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 10 9 6 8 5 -1 5 12 4 2 0 3 15 10 2 9 SHEAR DIR 275 280 229 234 249 293 292 283 242 244 226 230 208 191 207 235 263 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.2 25.9 23.9 21.1 17.2 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 128 127 126 127 132 135 135 137 138 129 116 102 89 78 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 123 121 119 118 116 120 121 120 122 123 116 104 92 82 74 71 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.4 -51.7 -51.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.7 0.9 2.2 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 68 66 61 62 65 70 71 69 67 59 40 26 30 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 36 39 39 38 38 37 37 40 44 44 48 47 47 47 40 850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 64 60 67 64 44 43 41 36 35 40 113 145 156 136 169 200 MB DIV 97 155 138 119 97 62 23 37 54 61 53 104 152 90 6 6 35 700-850 TADV 5 6 9 12 10 17 21 12 23 23 28 37 30 -29 -22 65 90 LAND (KM) 1764 1770 1783 1816 1848 1943 2075 2248 2446 2387 2221 2072 1978 1961 1649 1214 749 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.0 16.7 17.6 18.4 20.1 21.7 23.4 25.2 27.0 29.1 31.6 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.8 40.5 41.3 41.9 42.5 43.5 43.9 43.8 43.2 42.4 41.1 39.0 36.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 14 17 19 23 28 30 30 HEAT CONTENT 19 13 9 8 9 19 36 20 14 11 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -27. -35. -41. -46. -49. -53. -59. -63. -67. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -2. 1. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -0. 4. 3. 8. 6. 5. 4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 3. -1. -11. -22. -32. -39. -40. -37. -39. -33. -36. -40. -46. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.2 39.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.9% 16.0% 8.2% 5.1% 1.7% 2.6% 1.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 32.4% 4.0% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.4% 6.7% 3.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 28( 64) 21( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 29 3( 31) 2( 33) 3( 35) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 114 114 113 109 99 88 78 71 70 73 71 77 74 70 64 49 18HR AGO 110 109 109 108 104 94 83 73 66 65 68 66 72 69 65 59 44 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 101 91 80 70 63 62 65 63 69 66 62 56 41 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 96 86 75 65 58 57 60 58 64 61 57 51 36 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 81 70 60 53 52 55 53 59 56 52 46 31 IN 6HR 110 114 105 99 96 89 78 68 61 60 63 61 67 64 60 54 39 IN 12HR 110 114 114 105 99 95 84 74 67 66 69 67 73 70 66 60 45