* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 44 46 48 50 56 60 64 65 68 67 66 61 61 58 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 44 46 48 50 56 60 64 65 68 67 66 61 61 58 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 43 45 47 51 55 59 61 63 63 60 55 49 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 14 15 14 8 11 7 13 9 14 20 31 37 37 33 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -5 -2 -1 0 1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -4 -5 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 48 63 66 51 37 23 6 26 4 346 314 263 265 245 258 251 257 SST (C) 29.4 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.3 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.0 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 149 150 155 156 148 146 147 148 152 156 146 147 147 136 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 139 138 140 139 127 121 121 125 130 136 128 129 129 119 117 118 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 68 64 60 53 51 46 46 42 49 53 59 57 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -8 -21 -14 -1 4 0 -3 24 13 39 35 54 28 32 15 200 MB DIV 32 43 31 12 4 1 -5 -3 -11 -7 0 4 6 26 -1 -3 -17 700-850 TADV 5 -2 -1 -3 1 2 1 2 -1 -2 0 0 3 0 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 307 440 572 687 803 972 1045 1046 993 915 857 757 698 669 640 554 466 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 22.3 23.4 24.4 25.4 26.8 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.0 64.6 64.3 64.0 63.7 63.0 62.4 62.1 62.7 63.9 65.4 67.1 68.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 6 2 1 4 6 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 70 42 32 34 37 33 38 44 36 34 45 30 34 44 23 32 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 16. 20. 24. 25. 28. 27. 26. 21. 21. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.1 65.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 16.3% 10.7% 7.8% 4.6% 9.1% 11.3% 15.3% Logistic: 6.8% 28.4% 16.5% 11.7% 9.7% 21.6% 18.1% 2.7% Bayesian: 1.1% 13.5% 3.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 1.5% 0.1% Consensus: 4.7% 19.4% 10.2% 6.7% 4.8% 10.7% 10.3% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/25/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 44 46 48 50 56 60 64 65 68 67 66 61 61 58 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 43 45 47 53 57 61 62 65 64 63 58 58 55 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 41 43 49 53 57 58 61 60 59 54 54 51 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 34 36 42 46 50 51 54 53 52 47 47 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT