* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/25/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 44 45 46 48 50 54 55 57 59 64 64 63 60 56 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 44 45 46 48 50 54 55 57 59 64 64 63 60 56 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 44 45 46 49 51 54 56 58 61 63 62 58 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 17 20 18 16 8 13 10 18 13 14 15 28 36 38 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 1 -1 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -8 -5 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 29 21 39 55 59 38 28 4 6 10 357 327 272 253 236 249 249 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 156 157 160 153 153 151 152 150 154 152 144 143 140 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 145 146 145 142 132 128 124 127 128 134 133 126 124 121 117 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 69 69 65 62 55 52 46 45 41 45 47 55 59 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -9 -22 -25 -22 -28 -21 -15 3 0 15 16 18 14 23 7 11 200 MB DIV 47 40 32 46 38 3 8 -11 -12 -3 -22 0 -3 -4 7 20 16 700-850 TADV -3 3 6 3 0 1 5 1 1 -1 -2 0 1 4 2 3 -3 LAND (KM) 67 170 285 412 542 768 942 1032 1061 1038 982 919 845 752 705 679 645 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.6 20.7 21.9 23.0 24.9 26.3 26.9 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.1 64.9 64.6 64.3 64.0 63.2 62.4 61.7 61.5 61.8 62.7 64.2 65.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 9 6 3 0 3 5 7 7 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 61 63 67 53 39 38 39 49 52 48 35 32 29 25 35 41 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. -12. -13. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 14. 15. 17. 19. 24. 24. 23. 20. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.5 65.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.39 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 16.8% 10.9% 7.9% 4.6% 9.0% 11.4% 15.1% Logistic: 4.2% 15.1% 7.2% 6.3% 4.5% 13.1% 18.0% 27.8% Bayesian: 1.4% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 2.8% 1.3% Consensus: 4.1% 11.9% 6.3% 4.8% 3.1% 7.8% 10.7% 14.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/25/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 44 45 46 48 50 54 55 57 59 64 64 63 60 56 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 42 43 45 47 51 52 54 56 61 61 60 57 53 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 39 41 43 47 48 50 52 57 57 56 53 49 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 34 36 40 41 43 45 50 50 49 46 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT