* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/25/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 34 33 32 30 26 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 34 33 32 30 26 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 34 32 31 29 28 27 26 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 20 27 30 29 35 32 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 1 -6 0 -4 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 303 276 262 261 282 288 306 311 321 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 26.3 26.7 26.7 25.8 25.8 25.6 26.1 26.1 27.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 116 121 121 112 112 110 113 113 122 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 100 104 105 97 96 93 95 94 102 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 47 45 43 43 40 40 38 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 13 12 10 8 7 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 41 30 12 19 0 -19 -28 -41 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 4 6 9 29 1 21 -4 -45 -27 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -10 -5 0 0 2 10 0 -1 -8 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 796 833 878 964 1055 1111 1133 1211 1313 1423 1539 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.8 32.3 32.8 33.2 33.9 34.4 34.4 34.0 33.3 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.9 68.0 67.1 65.9 64.6 61.9 59.6 57.8 56.3 55.1 53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 12 11 9 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -8. -13. -16. -19. -22. -26. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -27. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -14. -19. -25. -30. -32. -34. -36. -36. -37. -37. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.3 68.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/25/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.36 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.97 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.33 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 11.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/25/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/25/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 36 34 33 32 30 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 35 33 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 32 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT