* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/24/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 38 40 44 48 53 57 60 65 68 70 68 67 64 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 38 40 44 48 53 57 60 65 68 70 68 67 64 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 40 43 45 49 53 56 60 62 64 63 59 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 12 11 13 11 11 5 7 5 9 9 19 28 36 41 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -5 -4 -4 -4 -8 -3 SHEAR DIR 22 21 27 35 47 68 40 51 5 322 338 277 274 249 254 236 244 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 160 156 154 159 159 152 147 143 143 143 145 145 142 142 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 154 152 147 144 145 141 130 123 119 120 122 123 124 122 123 116 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 72 69 67 61 56 49 47 42 41 38 43 49 56 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 4 -15 -20 -14 -23 -23 -17 -12 -24 2 8 22 11 21 18 200 MB DIV 32 52 45 25 8 30 6 3 -5 -22 -7 -8 -3 4 0 28 23 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 3 1 -4 4 0 0 -2 1 -2 0 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 102 24 76 194 318 576 774 930 1035 1070 1062 1029 953 896 844 805 762 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 18.1 19.0 20.1 21.2 23.4 25.1 26.4 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.6 65.5 65.3 65.0 64.2 63.6 63.0 62.7 62.9 63.6 64.8 66.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 8 6 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 80 69 66 69 65 35 37 35 33 29 25 24 26 28 31 47 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 18. 22. 25. 30. 33. 35. 33. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 65.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.46 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.47 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.03 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.83 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.87 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 10.5% 7.6% 4.3% 8.8% 11.3% 16.9% Logistic: 2.9% 10.3% 4.9% 3.5% 1.8% 9.8% 24.7% 17.6% Bayesian: 1.8% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 5.8% 1.8% Consensus: 1.6% 9.6% 5.4% 3.7% 2.0% 6.6% 13.9% 12.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/24/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 38 38 40 44 48 53 57 60 65 68 70 68 67 64 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 37 41 45 50 54 57 62 65 67 65 64 61 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 33 37 41 46 50 53 58 61 63 61 60 57 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 31 35 40 44 47 52 55 57 55 54 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT