* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/24/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 36 33 29 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 33 29 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 38 34 30 24 20 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 29 34 29 28 27 29 22 21 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 3 -1 2 -2 -3 -5 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 200 210 211 212 211 218 231 245 267 276 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 133 132 128 127 127 131 134 136 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 56 55 50 45 40 37 36 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 11 9 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 54 42 18 3 16 17 12 14 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 79 79 75 63 29 23 12 -6 -16 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 11 7 2 0 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1810 1725 1643 1569 1498 1370 1245 1109 1004 931 858 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.8 138.5 139.2 139.9 140.5 141.7 142.9 144.2 145.2 145.9 146.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 10 5 3 2 2 2 6 14 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -17. -18. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -16. -21. -27. -34. -37. -38. -38. -39. -40. -39. -39. -40. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.2 137.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/24/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/24/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##