* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/24/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 70 75 77 84 88 91 90 91 89 88 84 83 86 83 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 70 75 77 84 88 91 90 91 89 88 84 83 86 83 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 71 74 78 83 90 92 88 87 88 86 80 75 72 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 12 13 11 5 7 9 3 5 20 28 29 30 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 6 4 3 0 4 7 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -3 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 301 228 262 305 338 25 347 286 242 159 320 297 280 271 257 248 238 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 28.1 27.6 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 145 145 142 138 139 132 132 135 135 135 137 137 137 136 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 145 145 142 138 136 127 125 127 124 122 123 122 120 118 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 73 70 69 70 69 73 72 67 66 63 60 60 66 67 63 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 27 30 29 33 34 36 35 34 35 36 36 38 42 43 850 MB ENV VOR 53 60 70 80 79 65 73 80 79 76 74 67 92 110 117 128 141 200 MB DIV 135 150 155 96 35 38 93 93 48 62 42 42 35 49 45 52 55 700-850 TADV -5 1 1 -1 0 1 2 2 3 5 3 5 13 10 9 12 3 LAND (KM) 1111 1246 1384 1522 1661 1921 1848 1758 1760 1788 1860 1965 2095 2168 2245 2281 2144 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.5 16.9 18.3 19.8 21.3 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.3 28.7 30.1 31.4 32.8 35.5 38.1 40.2 41.9 43.3 44.5 45.4 45.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 14 14 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 17 17 17 14 25 21 12 15 24 31 41 20 17 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 7. 8. 6. 7. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 15. 20. 22. 29. 33. 36. 35. 36. 34. 33. 29. 28. 31. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.8 27.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 13.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.71 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 4.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.61 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.71 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 51.1% 37.5% 23.0% 7.4% 27.6% 26.3% 25.7% Logistic: 14.0% 36.5% 19.7% 12.5% 5.7% 16.9% 14.2% 7.8% Bayesian: 18.3% 45.2% 26.8% 7.6% 3.6% 22.1% 24.8% 4.4% Consensus: 16.4% 44.3% 28.0% 14.4% 5.6% 22.2% 21.8% 12.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 6( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 67 70 75 77 84 88 91 90 91 89 88 84 83 86 83 18HR AGO 55 54 60 63 68 70 77 81 84 83 84 82 81 77 76 79 76 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 59 61 68 72 75 74 75 73 72 68 67 70 67 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 52 59 63 66 65 66 64 63 59 58 61 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT