* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/24/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 36 39 43 48 54 59 63 69 70 71 70 71 70 V (KT) LAND 35 36 32 36 36 38 42 48 53 59 63 69 70 71 70 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 34 38 38 39 41 45 49 54 58 61 64 65 64 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 10 6 11 6 9 2 3 5 5 20 23 35 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 0 2 -5 0 2 4 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 30 25 24 42 52 85 82 91 144 105 245 216 248 243 245 239 248 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.0 28.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 161 155 155 158 159 150 145 144 145 146 146 137 143 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 156 153 146 142 141 138 127 121 121 124 127 129 123 131 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 71 73 74 72 68 63 58 48 42 35 32 32 35 38 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 5 10 -11 -11 -5 7 19 20 -3 3 4 26 28 30 37 200 MB DIV 20 33 61 42 12 35 12 7 18 1 -16 -12 -9 14 -1 -2 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 4 -2 -1 2 0 -2 0 0 -2 1 4 6 LAND (KM) 190 84 -12 91 214 450 648 821 925 990 1012 967 885 791 683 484 277 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.3 18.2 19.3 20.4 22.5 24.2 25.7 26.6 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.8 65.9 65.8 65.7 65.3 64.7 64.2 63.9 63.9 64.5 65.7 67.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 10 8 6 4 3 4 6 8 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 85 78 71 72 74 45 31 36 32 27 25 26 28 40 26 53 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 19. 24. 29. 34. 35. 36. 35. 36. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.3 65.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.04 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 11.7% 23.8% Logistic: 1.3% 4.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 1.8% 9.7% 8.8% Bayesian: 1.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 2.0% 2.0% Consensus: 0.9% 6.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 4.3% 7.8% 11.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/24/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 32 36 36 38 42 48 53 59 63 69 70 71 70 71 70 18HR AGO 35 34 30 34 34 36 40 46 51 57 61 67 68 69 68 69 68 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 35 37 41 47 52 58 62 68 69 70 69 70 69 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 31 37 42 48 52 58 59 60 59 60 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT