* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 60 66 70 77 80 82 85 87 86 82 83 86 87 89 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 60 66 70 77 80 82 85 87 86 82 83 86 87 89 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 60 64 70 73 78 81 83 82 79 77 78 78 77 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 7 11 15 4 8 12 8 6 14 17 21 20 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 7 10 4 1 3 4 7 2 -3 -5 1 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 316 346 276 298 312 358 341 289 257 261 216 237 235 242 241 242 246 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.5 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 147 145 134 133 133 133 134 137 135 137 141 137 134 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 145 147 145 134 131 130 127 127 127 124 124 125 120 117 115 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 73 72 71 71 70 72 68 66 61 58 55 58 59 60 58 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 23 24 27 27 28 28 29 31 31 30 28 30 33 35 38 850 MB ENV VOR 54 58 62 70 81 82 76 76 86 82 88 80 86 118 119 118 114 200 MB DIV 105 127 122 136 108 30 70 43 31 46 53 8 14 48 49 56 37 700-850 TADV -5 -2 2 0 -1 -5 0 4 2 4 3 0 1 5 5 6 2 LAND (KM) 1015 1140 1271 1404 1540 1829 1896 1756 1717 1730 1783 1877 1998 2080 2160 2268 2249 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.8 16.1 17.5 19.0 20.6 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.2 27.6 28.9 30.3 31.6 34.4 37.0 39.5 41.5 43.1 44.5 45.8 46.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 12 18 18 14 12 24 15 11 18 20 28 32 17 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 21. 25. 32. 35. 37. 40. 42. 41. 37. 38. 41. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.4 26.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.82 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.49 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.73 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.74 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 40.7% 26.3% 9.4% 6.2% 16.5% 24.6% 33.3% Logistic: 12.5% 40.3% 23.7% 14.1% 5.7% 12.0% 11.8% 6.9% Bayesian: 9.0% 14.6% 8.0% 0.9% 1.3% 7.4% 30.0% 11.9% Consensus: 9.7% 31.9% 19.3% 8.1% 4.4% 12.0% 22.1% 17.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 56 60 66 70 77 80 82 85 87 86 82 83 86 87 89 18HR AGO 45 44 50 54 60 64 71 74 76 79 81 80 76 77 80 81 83 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 51 55 62 65 67 70 72 71 67 68 71 72 74 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 41 45 52 55 57 60 62 61 57 58 61 62 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT