* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 27 30 34 40 46 51 58 63 68 71 72 70 72 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 27 27 30 34 41 46 52 58 63 69 71 72 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 30 33 37 41 45 49 51 54 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 16 14 7 9 9 7 2 5 4 10 8 17 24 29 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -3 0 1 1 1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 33 23 16 16 25 42 92 27 117 300 265 316 284 272 258 289 273 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 27.9 28.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 166 164 161 159 158 162 157 151 148 148 147 147 136 142 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 158 157 152 146 142 141 134 126 124 126 128 129 122 128 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 4 5 5 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 70 72 74 74 71 66 57 55 49 49 43 44 43 47 48 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 6 6 -1 -21 -21 -20 -12 -24 -15 -38 -20 -18 -1 -2 30 200 MB DIV 20 20 27 51 41 20 23 10 15 3 8 -4 0 -7 12 -16 8 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 1 -1 -3 0 -1 0 -2 1 -3 0 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 234 139 44 17 133 367 579 749 861 918 913 878 823 763 664 495 304 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.7 19.7 21.8 23.7 25.2 26.2 26.8 27.0 27.0 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 66.0 66.3 66.3 66.3 66.0 65.6 65.2 65.1 65.3 65.8 66.6 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 6 4 2 3 5 8 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 79 82 75 78 80 60 32 34 36 32 30 29 33 51 18 60 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -14. -13. -13. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -3. -0. 4. 10. 16. 21. 28. 33. 38. 41. 42. 40. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 65.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.98 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 10.4% 24.0% Logistic: 1.5% 6.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 1.9% 5.1% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.5% 6.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 3.2% 5.2% 10.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/24/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 27 27 27 30 34 41 46 52 58 63 69 71 72 71 72 18HR AGO 30 29 27 27 27 30 34 41 46 52 58 63 69 71 72 71 72 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 29 33 40 45 51 57 62 68 70 71 70 71 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 27 34 39 45 51 56 62 64 65 64 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT