* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 36 37 37 36 29 23 20 18 18 18 19 18 20 20 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 36 37 37 36 29 23 20 18 18 18 19 18 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 30 30 28 24 19 17 16 16 15 15 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 6 3 7 13 17 15 8 6 11 12 10 16 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 6 8 0 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 30 60 186 212 206 195 196 242 262 294 289 287 249 254 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 135 135 135 136 136 130 127 128 129 131 133 133 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 54 55 58 60 59 56 51 43 39 37 40 42 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 11 7 5 5 5 5 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 36 56 76 80 62 42 8 4 2 34 41 42 59 47 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 15 34 42 54 66 34 41 33 15 0 8 -2 20 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 3 10 4 0 -5 -1 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2242 2247 2193 2132 2071 1938 1807 1700 1624 1573 1534 1520 1516 1520 1516 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.4 16.0 16.0 15.9 16.6 17.9 18.9 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.2 17.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.2 133.8 134.4 135.0 135.6 136.7 137.7 138.6 139.3 139.8 140.2 140.4 140.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 5 3 2 2 3 1 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 11 10 14 17 3 3 3 3 5 7 9 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -10. -11. -9. -9. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -6. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -17. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 133.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.66 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.56 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 21.0% 18.7% 14.2% 10.0% 15.1% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.0% 4.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 9.4% 7.6% 5.1% 3.7% 5.2% 4.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##