* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 56 55 56 58 57 52 47 42 37 32 29 23 20 16 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 56 55 56 58 57 52 47 42 37 32 29 23 20 16 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 56 55 54 50 45 42 40 38 37 35 36 38 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 31 37 36 31 14 20 22 35 31 32 24 39 51 46 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 2 4 -1 2 0 3 1 6 -6 0 0 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 299 289 280 276 268 241 273 270 301 268 286 294 298 241 240 257 266 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.7 27.9 27.3 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.8 18.5 19.0 19.2 17.1 15.5 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 146 151 150 145 134 127 120 117 109 107 78 79 80 77 75 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 129 131 129 124 114 109 105 104 97 95 73 73 74 73 72 71 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.6 -53.8 -55.2 -56.4 -57.4 -55.8 -56.8 -57.9 -58.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 56 53 54 50 50 57 50 47 45 46 49 49 63 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 18 19 22 22 19 15 12 10 9 7 7 7 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -25 -22 -29 -24 1 -10 36 70 90 85 52 69 98 98 54 0 200 MB DIV 42 78 78 58 38 69 18 44 88 42 35 6 36 60 61 28 7 700-850 TADV 18 15 8 2 2 4 3 12 26 14 26 14 45 -22 -5 53 16 LAND (KM) 709 773 843 906 971 990 894 932 951 870 756 621 744 993 1409 1095 499 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.1 26.9 27.6 28.2 29.6 31.2 33.0 35.2 37.6 39.9 41.9 43.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.6 67.0 67.3 67.5 67.7 67.9 67.7 66.1 62.8 58.6 54.0 49.1 44.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 9 14 19 21 21 20 18 21 27 30 29 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 31 33 28 16 20 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. -25. -30. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 3. -3. -8. -12. -15. -18. -18. -17. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. -0. 1. 3. 2. -3. -8. -13. -18. -23. -26. -32. -35. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.3 66.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/22/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 56 55 56 58 57 52 47 42 37 32 29 23 20 16 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 54 55 57 56 51 46 41 36 31 28 22 19 15 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 51 53 52 47 42 37 32 27 24 18 15 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 45 47 46 41 36 31 26 21 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT