* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/22/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 57 58 60 61 59 53 45 45 46 39 34 29 18 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 57 58 60 61 59 53 45 45 46 39 34 29 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 57 57 58 55 50 47 44 41 39 38 37 39 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 21 30 33 29 22 13 29 30 42 21 32 40 48 50 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 3 5 2 0 1 5 0 4 -4 1 7 13 9 SHEAR DIR 311 302 286 279 281 246 249 280 295 290 280 283 278 233 220 219 216 SST (C) 29.5 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.4 27.7 27.6 26.0 25.4 25.0 25.7 22.8 19.0 19.4 16.4 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 151 147 150 150 141 132 132 116 111 107 113 94 79 80 74 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 134 129 130 129 121 112 113 101 97 93 98 83 73 73 69 68 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -55.1 -56.2 -55.6 -54.2 -53.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 58 55 54 50 61 50 43 38 35 38 43 44 54 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 16 17 19 21 19 18 15 11 12 14 12 13 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -19 -23 -20 -30 -18 -4 6 44 78 52 14 -1 29 84 165 195 200 MB DIV 27 33 65 84 64 60 28 48 53 65 8 6 27 27 85 86 68 700-850 TADV 18 16 16 6 -1 17 7 14 8 21 19 18 14 -50 -59 -39 -12 LAND (KM) 632 683 742 804 869 1018 955 922 1011 923 846 760 557 576 842 1175 1526 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.3 28.7 30.2 31.8 33.6 35.7 37.8 39.8 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.6 67.1 67.5 67.7 67.9 68.0 67.8 66.9 64.7 61.8 58.7 55.5 51.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 7 7 8 8 11 15 16 16 17 19 20 19 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 28 33 35 23 14 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. -0. -4. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -10. -13. -17. -18. -20. -25. -30. -35. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 4. 2. -3. -8. -8. -6. -9. -8. -7. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. -2. -10. -10. -9. -16. -21. -26. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.5 66.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.02 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.04 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.6% 2.0% 1.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 5.3% 3.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/22/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 57 57 58 60 61 59 53 45 45 46 39 34 29 18 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 56 57 59 60 58 52 44 44 45 38 33 28 17 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 53 55 56 54 48 40 40 41 34 29 24 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 46 48 49 47 41 33 33 34 27 22 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT