* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/22/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 42 43 45 45 43 38 32 29 27 24 24 24 26 26 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 42 43 45 45 43 38 32 29 27 24 24 24 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 40 39 39 39 37 33 27 24 22 21 20 20 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 10 9 6 5 16 11 8 7 7 13 17 15 14 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 6 12 1 0 -6 -4 0 -3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 124 19 19 30 62 169 173 187 181 239 265 276 270 299 295 279 263 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 129 130 132 134 134 133 128 126 128 129 130 131 131 132 133 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 45 45 48 49 54 58 58 60 59 52 46 47 46 47 47 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 15 16 15 12 9 7 7 6 7 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -5 15 23 37 53 79 67 42 19 8 8 31 30 35 25 33 36 200 MB DIV -37 -31 -5 0 23 34 69 31 22 40 21 18 20 14 17 9 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 3 0 -2 0 0 1 -1 5 0 LAND (KM) 2074 2152 2230 2235 2185 2076 1957 1853 1769 1690 1640 1616 1581 1551 1522 1491 1460 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.4 17.0 16.7 16.3 16.1 16.7 17.7 18.4 18.8 18.6 18.1 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.1 132.7 133.3 133.9 134.4 135.5 136.5 137.3 138.0 138.7 139.2 139.5 139.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 11 11 10 12 18 6 2 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -4. -7. -7. -8. -6. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. -2. -7. -13. -16. -18. -21. -21. -21. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.8 132.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.52 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.70 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.11 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.25 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 22.4% 17.3% 12.6% 10.5% 17.0% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.0% 6.2% 4.3% 3.6% 5.7% 4.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/22/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##