* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/21/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 56 57 60 61 61 65 66 67 65 67 61 51 43 38 V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 56 57 60 61 61 65 66 67 65 67 61 51 43 38 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 53 54 56 57 56 53 52 54 55 54 49 41 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 19 23 31 36 34 16 24 29 38 33 27 34 39 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 1 1 -3 0 4 0 2 0 2 -1 6 -2 9 13 SHEAR DIR 326 322 307 305 297 291 280 260 257 277 293 279 288 339 302 285 293 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.8 29.0 28.2 28.1 26.5 26.0 25.4 25.4 25.8 22.5 21.7 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 162 162 156 147 150 138 138 119 114 109 109 112 88 84 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 148 148 145 139 128 129 118 118 103 98 94 93 94 76 73 70 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -54.4 -56.3 -56.2 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 63 66 69 67 63 59 61 57 57 58 48 32 21 19 24 18 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 14 15 18 19 20 23 23 25 25 28 26 20 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -17 -6 -8 -13 -28 -31 -13 0 18 69 148 164 105 69 74 35 200 MB DIV 6 32 32 36 39 86 62 37 51 98 74 43 -9 -18 6 -12 -14 700-850 TADV 12 13 12 13 14 9 7 1 14 26 24 20 15 12 7 -27 -25 LAND (KM) 388 454 545 619 670 808 952 1094 1080 1113 1080 956 869 745 677 578 495 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.5 23.4 24.2 25.0 26.5 27.9 29.2 30.5 32.2 33.9 35.7 37.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.3 65.1 65.9 66.3 66.8 67.1 67.2 66.9 65.9 64.4 62.6 60.8 58.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 9 7 7 7 9 11 11 12 12 11 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 65 47 37 32 28 24 24 15 18 6 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -11. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 7. 9. 9. 12. 8. -0. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 10. 11. 12. 10. 12. 6. -4. -12. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.6 64.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.1% 9.9% 7.6% 4.7% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 5.2% 2.3% 1.4% 1.1% 2.3% 1.8% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.9% 4.1% 3.0% 1.9% 3.5% 0.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/21/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 55 56 57 60 61 61 65 66 67 65 67 61 51 43 38 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 57 60 61 61 65 66 67 65 67 61 51 43 38 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 56 57 57 61 62 63 61 63 57 47 39 34 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 49 50 50 54 55 56 54 56 50 40 32 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT