* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 53 52 50 45 42 40 38 34 29 26 26 25 27 26 25 V (KT) LAND 55 55 53 52 50 45 42 40 38 34 29 26 26 25 27 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 53 51 48 43 40 37 34 29 24 20 18 17 16 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 8 5 6 8 8 18 16 16 14 9 12 11 9 10 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 1 7 4 1 -1 2 1 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 245 263 257 246 297 23 229 198 184 177 188 165 182 219 228 239 243 SST (C) 26.0 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 120 127 128 127 126 126 129 133 134 130 126 126 129 128 128 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 46 46 49 52 55 54 55 54 46 41 37 36 37 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 10 11 12 12 10 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -13 -12 -3 13 36 68 69 60 29 25 29 47 56 61 52 72 200 MB DIV 17 -13 -37 -51 -32 -5 18 57 64 5 32 23 2 6 9 6 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 7 0 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1861 1911 1962 2026 2090 2235 2138 2046 1950 1852 1773 1688 1607 1504 1422 1369 1317 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.1 17.4 17.0 16.9 17.5 18.4 18.9 19.0 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.3 130.9 131.4 132.0 132.5 133.7 134.7 135.6 136.4 137.2 137.9 138.7 139.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 1 7 9 6 5 7 9 12 16 13 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -5. -10. -13. -15. -17. -21. -26. -29. -29. -30. -28. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.7 130.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.39 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.52 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.04 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 397.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.42 -2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 24.8% 17.4% 17.3% 12.1% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 8.8% 6.4% 5.9% 4.2% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##