* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 53 55 57 60 61 61 61 67 68 74 76 81 76 73 69 V (KT) LAND 55 53 53 55 57 60 61 61 61 67 68 74 76 81 76 73 69 V (KT) LGEM 55 51 49 49 49 51 53 53 52 51 54 57 61 61 58 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 15 10 16 17 32 34 32 10 26 21 31 8 7 7 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 4 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 -1 0 1 -5 12 7 10 SHEAR DIR 335 332 335 305 294 294 285 275 269 265 287 289 255 200 326 274 302 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.3 28.0 26.7 25.9 25.4 25.8 25.2 25.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 162 164 151 150 150 140 136 121 114 108 111 106 106 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 151 149 149 148 132 130 129 121 117 105 98 93 94 89 89 88 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -54.5 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 60 63 66 67 68 65 60 62 57 57 51 46 38 27 27 26 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 15 15 17 19 22 23 27 29 33 31 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -3 -1 3 1 -5 -29 -18 -6 32 63 124 154 169 124 102 74 200 MB DIV 2 2 31 24 36 62 42 47 34 78 33 67 45 -3 -7 13 -7 700-850 TADV 3 11 9 8 6 11 8 15 4 16 16 21 13 0 12 0 -13 LAND (KM) 378 388 436 506 519 612 745 891 1048 1017 1049 1049 959 916 899 920 889 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.7 22.4 23.1 23.7 25.0 26.3 27.6 29.0 30.5 32.1 33.9 35.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.5 64.5 65.5 66.4 67.3 68.3 68.6 68.4 67.7 66.7 65.2 63.2 61.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 9 7 6 7 8 9 11 12 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 71 63 52 46 42 32 33 27 18 17 11 0 0 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 2. 3. 7. 7. 12. 14. 17. 13. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 12. 13. 19. 21. 26. 21. 18. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.0 63.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.41 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.87 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.7% 10.8% 8.4% 5.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 6.9% 4.2% 3.3% 2.7% 2.7% 1.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.2% 5.1% 4.0% 2.9% 4.1% 0.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/21/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 53 55 57 60 61 61 61 67 68 74 76 81 76 73 69 18HR AGO 55 54 54 56 58 61 62 62 62 68 69 75 77 82 77 74 70 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 58 59 59 59 65 66 72 74 79 74 71 67 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 50 51 51 51 57 58 64 66 71 66 63 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT