* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/20/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 70 74 78 77 72 64 53 44 40 36 30 25 20 17 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 69 72 76 76 71 63 52 42 39 34 29 24 19 15 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 65 67 69 67 62 53 42 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 6 1 2 9 21 29 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 -1 -2 0 4 0 2 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 259 165 167 201 249 238 239 245 256 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.4 28.8 27.3 26.2 24.3 22.6 21.7 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 162 157 151 136 125 105 86 77 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 57 56 53 52 48 48 50 47 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 69 59 62 43 64 48 38 34 27 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 29 39 45 19 17 7 11 37 0 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -5 0 6 3 7 2 18 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 173 102 33 10 44 47 120 51 23 83 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.4 24.3 25.4 26.7 27.9 28.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.9 109.6 110.2 110.9 112.1 113.3 114.4 115.2 115.9 116.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 30 22 16 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 18. 17. 12. 4. -7. -16. -20. -24. -30. -35. -40. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.2 108.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 11.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.78 10.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 -6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 11.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.50 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.0% 59.4% 47.5% 33.7% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 14.0% 11.3% 5.3% 3.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.4% 24.8% 19.7% 13.0% 8.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##