* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 62 68 67 60 52 46 40 36 32 29 27 28 29 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 62 68 67 60 52 46 40 36 32 29 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 58 60 63 62 55 48 41 35 31 27 24 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 17 13 19 17 15 8 5 4 4 5 7 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 3 -1 2 -4 3 0 -1 4 3 7 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 60 59 63 74 68 84 110 131 153 184 26 10 357 306 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.9 27.8 26.3 25.5 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 159 161 160 153 141 125 116 112 109 107 106 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 4 4 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 67 66 63 57 52 48 46 40 38 34 33 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 19 24 23 20 17 15 13 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 50 54 62 74 72 68 49 40 38 22 32 15 19 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 88 53 63 56 38 27 -11 15 14 -15 -7 -23 -35 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 -3 -8 -1 -3 -2 0 -7 1 0 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 602 539 479 422 356 255 285 293 312 380 395 420 452 498 531 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.8 21.6 22.5 23.3 24.1 24.6 24.9 25.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 110.1 109.8 109.9 110.0 111.0 112.4 113.7 114.9 116.0 117.0 117.7 118.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 19 18 18 15 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 3. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 14. 12. 5. -3. -9. -15. -19. -23. -26. -28. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.3 110.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.17 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.23 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 23.4% 22.9% 18.7% 12.7% 18.3% 13.0% 10.9% Logistic: 1.4% 5.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 9.6% 8.3% 6.6% 4.4% 6.2% 4.4% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##